Publication of aggregate imbalance positions
Pursuant to Section 3.4(5) of Annex I to Regulation No 715/2009 3.4.5 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 July 2009, the market area manager discloses for each gas day the aggregate imbalance position of all balancing groups registered in its market area, plus its forecast of the aggregate end-of-day imbalance position of all balancing groups registered in its market area.
Given that a daily balancing regime applies and all balancing groups are thus balanced at the end of each gas day, the start-of-day imbalance position is always shown as “zero”. The end-of-day imbalance position for each gas day is forecast as follows:
The relevant quantity is derived on the basis of the BKSALDNACH data series available for the preceding days, with a ratio being calculated between the BKSALDNACH data series as submitted for the days D-7 and D-9 and this ratio then being applied to the BKSALDNACH data series as submitted for the gas day D-2 on the day D-1. The following example shows how the formula used to forecast the end-of-day imbalance position for each gas day is applied in practice.
Date displayed Gas day Aggregate imbalance position
- 19.05.20.. 17.05.20.. 20.000 MWh < - D-2
- 12.05.20.. 15.000 MWh < - D-7
- 10.05.20.. 10.000 MWh < - D-9
- (D-7/D-9) x D-2 = (15.000 MWh/10.000 MWh) x 20.000 MWh = 30.000 MWh
All numbers are rounded to thousands.
Result for above example: a forecast of 30,000 MWh is published for the end-of-day imbalance position for the gas day 19 May 20..
The above approach allows us to take account of changes occurring over the course of several days and thus to develop a more accurate forecast.
Please note that Trading Hub Europe cannot accept any liability for the accuracy of its daily end-of-day imbalance position forecasts.